Airlines Brace for Summer Disruption as Argus Data Shows Portugal Among Europe's Most Exposed to Jet Kerosene Shortfall

Argus Media Estimates Portugal Has Just Four Months of Commercial Jet Fuel Stocks — the Lowest in Western Europe After the UK

Portugal has approximately four months of commercial jet fuel reserves remaining, according to an estimate by energy intelligence firm Argus Media — placing it among the most exposed countries in Western Europe as the ongoing disruption to Middle Eastern shipping lanes continues to choke global aviation supply chains.

The estimate, based on Eurostat data and cited in a Euronews analysis published this week, ranks Portugal behind Hungary (five months), Denmark (six months), Italy and Germany (seven months each), and France and Ireland (eight months each). Only the United Kingdom, at three months, has a thinner buffer.

A 95 Per Cent Price Surge

Jet kerosene prices have surged 95 per cent since late February 2026, when military operations in the Middle East led to the effective closure of a key shipping chokepoint through which roughly 20 per cent of global crude oil exports and at least 42 per cent of the EU and UK's total seaborne jet kerosene imports had been passing.

"The situation is challenging. The effective closure has taken out over 20 per cent of the typical global seaborne jet fuel supply," George Shaw, senior insight analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler, told Euronews.

The final cargoes that transited the route before its closure are projected to have arrived at European ports around 10 April, according to Argus Media. From this point, unless the shipping lane reopens or adequate alternative supply routes are secured, incoming volumes will drop significantly.

Why Portugal Is Particularly Exposed

Portugal's vulnerability runs deeper than the headline figure suggests. The country has limited domestic refining capacity compared to neighbours like Spain, Germany and Italy. Galp's Sines refinery is the only major facility still operating after the permanent closure of the Matosinhos refinery near Porto in 2021, and it cannot alone meet national demand across all grades.

TAP Air Portugal, the flag carrier, reported a 92 per cent collapse in net profit in 2025 — before the current disruption — leaving it with minimal financial cushion to absorb kerosene cost shocks. Lisbon's Humberto Delgado Airport, already ranked the worst in Europe for departure punctuality last year, could face further schedule disruptions if airlines are forced to reduce capacity.

Scandinavian airline SAS has already cancelled at least 1,000 flights in April. Analysts warn that higher fares, surcharges and cuts to unprofitable routes will become the new normal. For Portugal's tourism-dependent economy — where aviation connectivity underpins a sector generating more than 15 per cent of GDP — even moderate capacity cuts could have outsized consequences.

Alternative Volumes Growing, but Slowly

There is some countervailing movement. US monthly jet kerosene exports to Europe reached their highest level in March, approaching 400,000 tonnes. European refineries are also pivoting to increase output. But these volumes remain far below the 1.4 million tonnes imported into the EU-27 and UK in May 2025, underscoring how slowly alternative sources can close the gap.

The International Energy Agency authorised the release of 400 million barrels from emergency oil stocks in March, but these are a mix of fuel types and cannot indefinitely compensate for a disrupted shipping pipeline.

May Could Prove More Difficult

Shaw warned that May "could prove more challenging" — a timeline that coincides with the start of Portugal's peak tourism season, when charter flights and low-cost carriers ramp up operations to the Algarve, Madeira and the Azores.

The European Commission has convened an oil coordination group to assess member state inventories. But Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen cautioned that jet kerosene contracts are "largely private contracts between airlines and suppliers" and that the first step is dialogue with member states before considering any solidarity measures.

Portugal's estimated buffer provides a rough horizon. But it assumes no acceleration in demand — and with summer bookings already locked in and airlines under pressure to maintain schedules, that assumption looks increasingly fragile.