War-Driven Cost of Living Squeeze Cuts Lottery and Scratch Card Sales by 40 Million Euros

Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa has suffered an estimated EUR 40 million decline in gaming sales since the Middle East war began driving up fuel and food prices, its Provedor Paulo Sousa has revealed, warning that Portuguese consumers are being forced to reallocate their disposable income away from discretionary spending.

Speaking to Antena 1 and Jornal de Negócios on the Conversa Capital programme, Sousa said the drop — measured against the institution's approximate EUR 700 million annual gaming revenue baseline — became evident within weeks of the US-Israeli military offensive against Iran that began on 28 February 2026.

Purchasing Power Under Pressure

“I sense that available income is being allocated differently, resulting in lower consumer demand,” Sousa said. While the percentage decline is less than six per cent of total gaming sales, the absolute figure is significant for an institution that uses gaming revenue to fund a vast network of social services across Portugal.

The Provedor noted that the impact is not confined to gaming. Retail establishments that sell Santa Casa products — including tobacconists and newsagents — are also reporting broader consumption declines, suggesting the squeeze on disposable income extends well beyond lottery tickets and scratch cards.

Placard and Lotaria Buck the Trend

Not all of Santa Casa's gaming products have been equally affected. Sousa confirmed that Placard, the sports betting product, and Lotaria, the traditional lottery, have been exceptions to the general decline and are recovering ground.

To counteract the revenue shortfall, Santa Casa plans to launch a new game and recruit 400 additional mediators — the agents who sell tickets and manage retail points of sale across the country. Sousa also confirmed that the price of bets will not increase, a decision designed to avoid further deterring consumers at a time when household budgets are already stretched.

A Different Story From Online Betting

The decline in Santa Casa's traditional gaming revenue stands in contrast to Portugal's regulated online betting market, which smashed every revenue record in 2025. Gross online gambling revenue topped EUR 1.1 billion for the first time, with the state collecting nearly EUR 360 million in gaming tax.

The divergence highlights a structural shift in Portuguese gambling behaviour: younger, digitally native consumers are migrating to online platforms, while the traditional lottery and scratch card market — historically dominated by older and lower-income demographics — is more vulnerable to cost-of-living pressures.

What It Means for Social Services

Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa is not merely a gaming operator. It is Portugal's oldest and largest social solidarity institution, with origins dating to 1498. Revenue from Jogos Santa Casa funds hospitals, elderly care homes, disability services, and cultural institutions across the country. A sustained decline in gaming income directly reduces the institution's capacity to deliver these services at a time when demand for social support is rising.

Oil prices have shown some positive signals in recent days following the first fuel price decline in weeks, but Sousa cautioned that the benefits have not yet filtered through to retail spending. The war's effect on consumer confidence may outlast the immediate price shock.