Two-Thirds of Portuguese Reject Montenegro's 'Country Is Better' Claim — Half Say His Government Is Worse Than Costa's, New Aximage Barometer Shows

Two-thirds of Portuguese voters reject Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's repeated claim that "the country is better and the Portuguese are better off," according to the April Aximage barometer for Jornal de Negócios and Correio da Manhã, published on Monday 20 April 2026.

The poll — conducted between 10 and 15 April with a sample of 500 respondents — lands at the worst possible moment for the AD government, two days before Brazilian President Lula da Silva arrives in Lisbon and a week before the 25 de Abril Freedom Day celebrations.

The Headline Number

Asked whether they agreed with Montenegro's repeated assertion that the country is in better shape than when he took office, about 68% of those polled said they disagreed or strongly disagreed. Only a minority sided with the prime minister.

The figure is consistent with the harder political verdict elsewhere in the same survey: 50.8% of respondents consider the current Montenegro government to be "worse" than the last cabinet of António Costa — a striking benchmark, given that the Costa government left office under the cloud of Operação Influencer and Costa himself remains under judicial investigation in Portugal.

Government Performance — 54% Negative

The barometer's headline performance question shows 54% rating the government's overall action as negative, including 17% who classify it as "very bad" — up from 15% in the March wave. Aximage attributes the slide partly to the impact of the Middle East war on the cost of living, which has eroded consumer purchasing power throughout the spring.

Voting Intentions — PS at 30.6%, AD and Chega Tied

On the legislative voting question, the PS — led by José Luís Carneiro since the 19 April congress that confirmed his 88.9% mandate — pulls clearly ahead with 30.6% after distributing the 8.3% of undecided voters. The remaining field:

• PSD/AD — 24.3%
• Chega — 23.6%
• Other parties — remainder

That puts AD and Chega in a statistical tie for second, with the Socialists more than six points clear of either. The PS had registered 27% in the March Aximage wave, meaning Carneiro's first month at the head of the party has been worth roughly 3.6 percentage points.

Trust in Prime-Minister Candidates

On the question of which leader voters most trust as Prime Minister, the picture is more competitive:

• Luís Montenegro (AD) — 27%
• José Luís Carneiro (PS) — 23%
• André Ventura (Chega) — 22%
• None of them — 20%

Montenegro's four-point lead in the trust dimension does not translate into a corresponding lead for his party — a familiar gap in Portuguese polling, where the prime-minister-of-the-day typically retains a personal premium over his party's vote share.

Seguro — The Bright Spot

One month after taking office, President António José Seguro emerges as the clearest winner of the barometer:

• 49% rate his performance as "good"
• 20% rate it as "very good"
• 16% give a negative assessment
• 15% have no opinion

That gives Seguro a 69% positive rating one month into a five-year mandate — a honeymoon premium that comfortably outpaces the government installed in São Bento. The April wave reinforces a pattern visible since his swearing-in: voters are giving the new President credit for his measured handling of the Council of State and the politically charged dossiers (the nationality law, the flag-ban diploma) now landing on his desk.

What This Tells Us — And Doesn't

Three caveats worth flagging on the data:

• The sample of 500 respondents is on the small side; Aximage publishes a sampling margin in line with industry standards but voters should treat single-wave movements smaller than three points with care.
• The fieldwork ended on 15 April — before the parliamentary vote on the flag-ban diploma, before the public-finance watchdog's revised deficit forecast, and before the AIMA family-reunification portal reopening. Subsequent waves may capture different signals.
• The Costa-vs-Montenegro comparison is loaded: the Costa government covered nine years across two majorities, of which only the final months were marked by the Operação Influencer rupture. Respondents may be comparing economic memory rather than equivalent political stretches.

Why It Matters

Three reasons.

First, Montenegro built his April messaging strategy — including his Estado da Nação debate posture and his appearances at trade-union concertation — around the claim that household conditions have improved on his watch. The Aximage data says the public is not buying it.

Second, the PS lead is now consistent across two pollsters in the past week (the 17 April Público/CESOP series showed the same direction). For a government that has spent its first thirteen months trailing PS in approval but leading in vote intentions, that crossover changes the parliamentary arithmetic.

Third, the Seguro premium is a pattern, not a blip. When Belém and São Bento move in opposite directions on confidence, the President's room to politically veto, refer to the Constitutional Court, or apply pressure on dossiers like the nationality law and the flag ban grows materially. Carneiro's PS will be calculating accordingly.

What to Watch Next

• Whether the May Aximage wave confirms or reverses the PS gain after the Lula visit and the 25 de Abril celebrations have moved through the news cycle.
• Whether Iniciativa Liberal — absent from the headline numbers reported so far — sustains the parliamentary cohabitation strategy that has kept the AD government afloat.
• How Bloco de Esquerda and PCP respond to a PS that has now retaken the polling lead from the AD — and whether the left bloc consolidates around Carneiro or fragments in the run-up to the autumn budget cycle.

Sources: Aximage barometer for Jornal de Negócios and Correio da Manhã (fieldwork 10–15 April 2026, n=500); Observador (20 April 2026 reporting on the wave); Jornal de Negócios; Público (17 April 2026 cross-pollster comparison).