Portuguese Employers Pare Back Summer Hiring Plans as the Net Outlook Slides to 18%

Portugal's employers are turning markedly more cautious about taking on staff. The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey puts the country's net hiring intention at 18 percent for the third quarter of 2026 — the three months that begin in July — down sharply from a reading close to 30 percent in the previous quarter. The net figure is the gap between the share of companies planning to add workers and those planning to cut them.

The cooling brings Portugal below the global average of 26 percent across the 42 countries surveyed, and signals that the buoyant labour market of recent years is losing some of its heat as international uncertainty bites.

Fewer hiring, more cutting

Behind the headline number, the balance of employer intentions has shifted in both directions. About half of companies expect to keep headcount steady. The share planning to expand their teams slipped to 35 percent, from 38 percent a quarter earlier, while the proportion expecting to reduce staff almost doubled, climbing to 17 percent from 9 percent. That swing toward layoffs is the clearer warning sign in the data.

ManpowerGroup tied the softer outlook to a thickening fog of risk: the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, volatile energy costs, broader geopolitical tension and a slowing European economy. The previous quarter's stronger reading, the firm noted, had not yet captured the latest deterioration.

Construction still leads, but slows

Hiring appetite remains positive across every major sector, even as all of them ease. Construction and real estate posts the highest intention at plus 36 percent, though that is down 10 points on the quarter. Technology and IT services follow at 32 percent, with industry at 24 percent and commerce and logistics at 22 percent.

Among firms that do plan to recruit, business growth is the most cited reason, named by 34 percent, ahead of specific projects at 24 percent and the need to fill vacancies amid talent shortages. Where companies are shedding jobs, the explanations are more sobering: economic difficulties (27 percent), restructuring and downsizing (23 percent), aligning the workforce to weaker demand (23 percent) and the advance of automation (20 percent).

What it means for workers and employers

• A still-open but tighter market. A net 18 percent intention is positive, not negative — jobs are still being created — but the pace is slowing and the rising share of firms planning cuts suggests less bargaining power for candidates than a year ago.
• Skills bias persists. Construction, technology and industry remain the strongest sources of demand, favouring those with trade, engineering or IT skills.
• External shocks dominate. The drivers cited are largely beyond Portugal's control, which makes the next quarter's reading sensitive to how the energy and geopolitical picture evolves.

The survey lands alongside other signs of a labour market that is cooling rather than cracking: foreign nationals now make up nearly one in five social-security contributors as employers lean on immigrant labour, even as confidence wobbles. For anyone weighing a move or a job change in Portugal this summer, the message is that opportunities remain — but employers are choosing more carefully than they were.