Portugal Leads EU With 87 Percent Gas Reserves — But Refilling Europe's Tanks May Cost Double This Year
As European energy ministers scramble to prepare for another uncertain winter, Portugal finds itself in an enviable position: its natural gas storage facilities are 87.5 percent full, the highest level of any EU member state. Spain follows at...
As European energy ministers scramble to prepare for another uncertain winter, Portugal finds itself in an enviable position: its natural gas storage facilities are 87.5 percent full, the highest level of any EU member state. Spain follows at roughly 57 percent. The European average sits at a precarious 28 percent.
The numbers, compiled from the EU's Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory platform and analyzed by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, paint a stark picture of the continent's energy vulnerability — and of the enormous cost of fixing it before cold weather returns.
The Price of Preparedness
Since 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended European gas markets, EU member states have been required to fill storage facilities to between 80 and 90 percent capacity before each winter. That target was met in previous years at manageable cost. This year will be different.
Bruegel modeled three scenarios. In the most optimistic case, with gas priced at 45 euros per megawatt-hour, the EU would need approximately 26 billion euros to reach the 80 percent threshold — a 20 percent increase over last year. At 60 euros per MWh, the bill rises to 35 billion euros, a 55 percent jump. And at 75 euros per MWh — a level not far from current spot prices — the cost would reach 44 billion euros, nearly double the 2025 figure.
Context matters. In 2025, the average cost of stored gas was around 35 euros per MWh. The benchmark Dutch Title Transfer Facility contract surged 59 percent in March alone, closing at 47.51 euros on April 1, up from roughly 32 euros in late February. The Middle East conflict, rising demand from Asia, and lower-than-expected LNG deliveries are all pushing prices higher.
Why Portugal Stands Out
Portugal's strong storage position stems partly from geography and infrastructure. The Sines LNG terminal gives the country direct access to global liquefied natural gas markets, reducing dependence on pipeline gas from volatile eastern supply routes. Portugal was also an early mover in securing LNG contracts after the 2022 crisis, and its relatively modest absolute consumption means a smaller volume fills a larger share of capacity.
The country's 3.12 terawatt-hours of stored gas may seem modest compared to Italy's 88.9 TWh (at 43.7 percent of capacity), but in proportional terms Portugal is the best-prepared nation in the bloc. The Netherlands, Europe's former gas giant, sits at a dire 4.95 percent.
None of this means Portuguese consumers are insulated from price pressures. Natural gas prices flow through to electricity generation, industrial costs, and ultimately household bills. ERSE, the national energy regulator, has already proposed a 6.3 percent tariff increase effective October, and further adjustments are possible if wholesale prices remain elevated.
The Bigger Picture
The Bruegel researchers warn that "rapid restocking in the coming months could itself push prices higher," creating a self-reinforcing cycle. The EU's collective challenge is to rebuild reserves from 28 percent to above 80 percent in roughly seven months — an effort that requires both money and political coordination.
For Portugal, the immediate risk is less about running out of gas and more about the economic drag of elevated energy prices on a recovery that the Bank of Portugal has already downgraded. Inflation accelerated to 2.7 percent in March, driven largely by energy costs, and Portugal recorded the highest month-on-month price increase in the eurozone at 2.3 percent.
The country's gas tanks may be full, but the bill for keeping Europe warm next winter is one that every consumer will feel.
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