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Portugal's central bank cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1.8 percent, citing the economic fallout from the US-Israel attack on Iran and damage from Storm Kristin. The first quarter is projected to see zero growth, with inflation revised upward to 2.8 percent.

INE confirmed Portugal's 2025 budget surplus at 0.7% of GDP (€2.06 billion), beating government forecasts. But with Iran war costs mounting and storm damage bills unpaid, that cushion is already earmarked.