Markets, Business & Tech Briefing — Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Global markets rebounded on Tuesday after recent geopolitical jitters, with all eyes now turning to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today. Here's what moved overnight and what to watch.

Wall Street Rebounds

US equities posted solid gains on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,741.72, the Dow Jones climbed 217 points (+0.5%) to 47,163.85, and the Nasdaq led with a 0.7% gain to 22,526.29. The rally came despite elevated oil prices, with WTI crude hovering near $93.38 per barrel, as investors focused on resilient earnings projections and a cooling inflation outlook.

Sector Highlights

Airlines surged: Delta Air Lines jumped 6.6% after raising its Q1 revenue forecast, citing accelerating demand from both business and leisure travelers. American Airlines (+3.5%), United (+3.2%), and Southwest (+2.2%) followed. The travel sector continues to defy higher fuel costs.

Tech and AI: The AI trade regained momentum. Nvidia held gains after reiterating its $1 trillion AI chip revenue forecast for 2027. Qualcomm jumped 3% on a dividend hike and new $20 billion buyback program.

Financials led: Goldman Sachs rose 2.57%, IBM gained 2.29%, and American Express added 2.01%. Defensive sectors underperformed—J&J fell 0.96% as investors rotated back into growth.

Portugal: PSI Gains

The Lisbon PSI index closed up 0.50% on Tuesday. Galp Energia was the standout, gaining 2.32% to €21.18, benefiting from elevated energy prices as the Middle East conflict supports oil markets.

Key Event Today: The Fed

The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision today. Markets widely expect rates to hold steady at 3.75%, but the Summary of Economic Projections and "dot plot" will be closely watched for signals about future rate cuts. The Fed faces a dilemma: energy-driven inflation pressures versus slowing economic growth—the classic stagflation setup.

Oil and Energy

Crude oil remains elevated near $93/barrel as the Iran conflict continues to weigh on global energy markets. HSBC's global equity strategist noted that while "talk of a shift toward stagflation is building," recent equity market action is "more indicative of trading for a recessionary outcome." For Portugal, elevated energy prices remain the biggest economic headwind.

What This Means for Expats

Energy bills: With oil near $93, expect continued upward pressure on Portuguese electricity and gas prices. REN warned this week that the Middle East conflict will push up energy costs for Portuguese consumers.

Interest rates: If the Fed holds at 3.75% and signals patience, the ECB is likely to follow a similar cautious path. That means mortgage rates in Portugal are unlikely to drop significantly in the near term.

Investment portfolios: The AI/tech rebound and airline surge suggest markets are looking past near-term geopolitical risks. But elevated oil and a possible stagflationary environment warrant caution. Diversification remains key.