Markets, Business & Tech Briefing -- Wednesday, 25 March 2026

PSI Index Holds Steady Amid Global Volatility

Portugal's PSI index closed Tuesday around 8,861 points, trading in a narrow range between 8,782 and 8,889. The index is up roughly 2,050 points on the year but remains well below its 2026 high of 9,329. European markets were whipsawed by Trump's Iran-related Truth Social post, which sent oil crashing and equities surging before Iran denied any negotiations were taking place.

Oil Prices Remain Elevated Despite Brief Crash

Brent crude swung wildly on Monday, dropping from above 113 dollars per barrel to below 100 after Trump's Iran post before recovering. The IEA has compared the current energy crisis to the 1970s twin oil shocks. Portugal has already cut fuel taxes in response, with diesel prices up 17.5 percent since the conflict began. The government's new electricity price cap legislation stands ready if wholesale prices breach trigger levels.

Portugal's Renewable Advantage Keeps Power Costs in Check

Iberian wholesale electricity prices remain at 60 to 70 euros per MWh, roughly half the levels seen in gas-dependent economies like Germany (above 150 euros/MWh). Portugal's 70 percent renewable generation share insulates the grid from the worst of the global gas price shock, though transport fuel costs continue to rise.

Housing Prices Rose 17.6% in 2025 -- The Highest on Record

INE data published this week confirmed that Portuguese house prices rose 17.6 percent in 2025, the largest annual increase since records began in 2009. A record 169,812 homes were sold for a combined 41.2 billion euros. The final quarter of 2025 saw 18.9 percent year-on-year growth. Domestic buyers accounted for 87.5 percent of purchases, the highest share since 2019.

Foreign Buyers Still Pay Double, but Their Market Share Falls

Foreigners with naturalised status bought 41,086 homes in Portugal in 2025 (up 6.6 percent), but their share of total family purchases fell to 27.6 percent -- the lowest since 2021. Brazilians led with 9,808 purchases (up 27.5 percent). British and American buyers paid the highest average prices at 512,585 and 479,403 euros respectively -- more than double the Portuguese average of 234,120 euros.

Government Housing Tax Package Faces EU Limits

Secretary of State for Tax Affairs Claudia Reis Duarte confirmed that a blanket reduction of construction VAT from 23 to 6 percent is not possible under EU directives, which only permit reduced rates for social housing purposes. The authorisation law published March 6 sets price ceilings at 2,300 euros monthly rent and 660,982 euros for purchases. Other measures include cutting IRS on rental income from 25 to 10 percent and increasing rent tax deductions to 1,000 euros monthly.

Electricity Price Cap Law Ready, But Not Yet Needed

Portugal's government approved legislation last week allowing temporary electricity price caps for households and most businesses during an energy crisis. Officials stressed that Iberian wholesale prices remain well below the trigger threshold, making it a precautionary measure. The bill gives the government authority to intervene if prices spike to levels seen elsewhere in Europe.

Banco de Fomento Creates Strategic Advisory Council

Economy Minister Manuel Castro Almeida announced that Portugal's development bank (Banco de Fomento) has established a new Strategic Advisory Council to guide the institution's direction. The minister described economic growth as the Prime Minister's top priority, positioning the council as part of the government's investment strategy.

Meo Fixed Network Storm Recovery at 95.9%, Full Restoration by April 30

Portugal's largest telecom provider says mobile service has been fully restored in storm-affected areas, but fixed-line recovery requires "complete reconstruction of network sections" in many locations. The 95.9 percent availability figure is expected to reach 100 percent by late April. Customers receive automatic billing credits for outage periods.

Tribunal Delays Ruling on Fake Address Immigration Scheme

A Lisbon court postponed until May 25 its decision on a network allegedly using fake addresses in the Penha da Franca neighbourhood to facilitate immigrant legalisation. The case highlights ongoing concerns about fraud in Portugal's immigration system at a time when AIMA is already under pressure from a backlog of over 400,000 pending applications.