Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Snaps Three-Day Slide, Jerónimo Martins Leads, Galp–Moeve Deal Slips to H2

Portuguese Equities: A Friday Bounce Caps a Losing Week

Lisbon ended the week on a firmer footing, but not before three straight sessions of losses had eaten into the benchmark. The PSI index closed Friday, 17 July up 0.27% at 9,062.26 points, snapping a slide that had run from Tuesday through Thursday and pulled the gauge from a 9,126.85 finish to an intraweek low of 9,037.45. Even with Friday's rebound, the index shed roughly 0.7% across the week, its softest five-day stretch in over a month as thin summer volumes amplified modest moves. The breadth on Friday, at least, was constructive: advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by 19 to eight, with one name unchanged. The PSI still sits close to flat over the past month and around 17% higher than a year ago, keeping Lisbon among Europe's steadier bourses even after a wobble.

Blue-Chip Movers

Retailer Jerónimo Martins was the standout on Friday, climbing 2.12% to €16.84 to lead the index higher as investors positioned ahead of the coming results season — a notable reversal for a stock that had drifted for much of the week. Paper-maker The Navigator Company added 1.34% to €3.19, recovering some of its earlier losses. Weighing the other way, Banco Comercial Português (BCP), the country's largest listed bank, slipped 1.11% to €1.03, giving back the prior session's gains; postal operator CTT — Correios de Portugal (Post Office of Portugal) eased 0.43% to €5.76; and EDP Renováveis, the renewables arm of the EDP — Energias de Portugal (Energies of Portugal) group, edged down 0.14% to €13.82. Energy major Galp Energia, the week's chief drag, steadied into the close after several bruising sessions tied to headlines on its Spanish tie-up and an overseas tax dispute — both detailed below.

Government Bonds

Portuguese sovereign debt held broadly steady into the weekend. The yield on the 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro (Treasury bonds) hovered around 3.5%, still near its highest in more than two years as traders continued to pare bets on further near-term easing from the European Central Bank (ECB). The spread over 10-year German Bunds — the market's yardstick for Lisbon's credit standing — stayed close to 40 basis points, historically tight and a reminder of how far Portugal's borrowing premium has compressed since the debt-crisis years. With the euro-area data calendar light through the weekend, direction for yields will hinge on next week's supply and on any fresh signals from ECB officials.

Euro and the Dollar

The single currency was little changed. EUR/USD settled at $1.1435 on Friday, down a shade under 0.1% on the day and staying within the narrow band that has held for most of July, according to the European Central Bank's reference rates. With no market-moving euro-area or US releases to force a break, the exchange rate applied little fresh pressure — in either direction — on Portugal's exporters or its import bill.

Business & Tech Focus: Galp–Moeve Downstream Deal Slips to the Second Half

The week's defining corporate story belonged to Galp Energia, whose long-trailed plan to combine its downstream business with Spain's Moeve (the former Cepsa) has slipped its timetable. Management had earlier guided to signing an agreement by the end of July; the group now expects any deal to be finalised in the second half of 2026, a message reinforced alongside its second-quarter trading update. The proposed structure would carve the combined operations into two platforms: an industrial business spanning refining, chemicals, trading and low-carbon fuels — in which Moeve's owners, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala and private-equity house Carlyle, would hold control and Galp a stake above 20% — and a co-controlled mobility business built around fuel retail and convenience across Iberia. A tie-up would reshape the Portuguese and Spanish downstream fuel markets, but the slipped timeline kept Galp shares under pressure for much of the week before Friday's steadier finish.

Deal Watch: Galp Takes Its Mozambique Tax Fight to World Bank Arbitration

Galp is also opening a second front, this time with a sovereign. The company has filed for international arbitration at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), the World Bank's dispute-resolution arm, over a tax quarrel with Mozambique's Autoridade Tributária (Tax Authority). The case, registered on 26 June, disputes a roughly €162 million capital-gains assessment tied to Galp's 2024 sale of its 10% stake in the offshore Area 4 block of the Rovuma Basin gas project to XRG, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), for about $881 million. Galp is leaning on bilateral investment-protection treaties linking Mozambique with Portugal and the Netherlands. ICSID cases are notoriously slow — averaging close to five years — so the overhang is unlikely to resolve quickly, though the sums involved are modest against Galp's balance sheet.

Earnings Watch: First-Half Reporting Season Opens

Attention now turns to the domestic first-half earnings season, which clusters in the final days of July. EDP — Energias de Portugal has set 30 July for its half-year results, the next major checkpoint for a stock that, together with Galp and BCP, formed the trio of PSI names posting billion-euro profits in 2025. Sell-side sentiment has been drifting higher into the reports: analysts have lifted price targets on EDP Renováveis, citing stronger expected returns from its US renewables pipeline, and nudged up estimates on retailer Sonae. Whether the numbers justify the optimism — after a week in which the index gave ground — will shape the tone for Lisbon equities as August approaches.

The Week Ahead

With markets shut over the weekend, Monday's reopening will test whether Friday's bounce marks a floor or merely a pause, with Galp's ability to steady, the countdown to earnings season and broader European risk appetite the key variables to watch.