Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Sheds 1.27% to 8,961 as BCP Hits Ex-Dividend Day, Galp Bucks Tape +1.82%, INE Q1 GDP +2.3% Confirmed Lifted by the Nvidia Sines Capex Shock
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📋 In This Edition
- Portugal's 10-year OT yield
- Galp Energia
- Outlook
Monday, 1 June 2026 — Euronext Lisbon opens the June tape with a sixth straight down session as BCP enters ex-dividend, Mota-Engil and Sonae extend the late-May rotation lower, and Galp is the lone heavyweight to print green on a softer oil bid.
PSI: Sixth-down session prints 8,960.94 on BCP ex-dividend, breadth turns deeply negative
The PSI closed Monday's session at 8,960.94, off -1.27% (-115.59 points) from Friday's 9,076.53 finish — the index's sixth-down session in a row when stacked against the prior week's five-session losing run, and the first sub-9,000 print since mid-March. Breadth turned deeply negative: 14 of 16 blue chips traded lower, with only Galp and EDP Renováveis on the green side of the tape, and the ticker logged its weakest opening Monday for the post-Easter window.
The single biggest mover was Banco Comercial Português (BCP), which slid -3.48% to €0.9386 as the stock entered ex-dividendo for the €0.0344-per-share gross dividend approved at the 7 May AGM — payout starts Wednesday 3 June with the net cash hitting holders at €0.0248-€0.0258 per share depending on the IRS or IRC retention applied. The technical-adjustment leg of the BCP move accounts for roughly 3.6 percentage points of the day's PSI weight loss on its own. The losers' tape ran wide of BCP's print: Teixeira Duarte -4.07% to €0.413, Semapa -3.16% to €23.00 as the cement-pulp-and-environment holding walked into its own €0.626 per share distribution window with the 17 June pay date, Mota-Engil -2.99% to €4.61 giving back the Friday +1.37% bounce off the CaixaBI €5.70 price-target lift, Sonae -2.83% to €1.854, Ibersol -2.54% to €11.50, Corticeira Amorim -1.99% to €6.41, NOS -1.71% to €5.175, Jerónimo Martins -1.49% to €17.89, CTT -1.24% to €5.99, Altri -1.11% to €4.90, REN -0.85% to €3.51, Navigator -0.76% to €3.376 and EDP -0.76% to €4.334. The two green prints were Galp Energia +1.82% to €18.975 — the index's lone heavyweight gainer — and EDP Renováveis +0.21% to €14.20.
Bonds and FX: OT 10-year sits at 3.387%, PT-Bund spread widens toward 46 bps, EUR/USD slips to $1.1644
Portugal's 10-year OT yield closed essentially flat at 3.387% (-0.4 basis points on the day) after intraday-ranging between 3.314% and 3.405%, but the week-on-week read shows the yield about 8 basis points wider than Friday's 3.31% close as the Lisbon tape priced through the BCP and Semapa ex-dividend mechanics and reset the carry. Germany's 10-year Bund traded near 2.93% — close to the prior session's lowest read since April — leaving the PT-Bund spread around 46 basis points, modestly wider than Friday's 37 bps but still inside the 40-50 bps working band of the past three months. The next IGCP catalyst sits on the June OT auction calendar, with the €24 billion 2026 wholesale-funding envelope now running roughly 60% covered after the €3 billion 20-year sindicada of Thursday 28 May drew €54 billion in demand at an 18-times oversubscription.
On the FX side, the euro printed $1.1644 against the dollar, off -0.14% on the session and giving back roughly 30 pips from Friday's $1.1674 close — a measured pullback rather than a directional shift, with the pair still pinned at the upper bound of the 2026 range. Euribor 3-month tracks near 2.23%, the indexation rail that walks both the Certificados de Aforro retail rail (June base reset at 2.215%) and the crédito habitação reset clock heading into the 5 June Frankfurt decision.
Nvidia Sines deliveries lift Portugal's Q1 capex tape — INE prints +27.4% machinery growth as €3.6 billion in chips lands in the GDP read
The day's headline macro signal came out of the Instituto Nacional de EstatÃstica (INE — National Statistics Institute) quarterly accounts: Q1 2026 GDP grew +2.3% year-on-year, with investment the single biggest driver at +9.2% (versus +4.9% in Q4 2025) and the 'Other Machinery and Equipment' sub-line vaulting +27.4% year-on-year against the +6.1% Q4 read. The capex shock — roughly €3.6 billion in capital-goods imports between January and March — traces almost entirely to 'automatic data processing machines', INE's classification cover for the ~12,500 Nvidia Blackwell Ultra GB300 processors that landed inside Start Campus's first Sines building over the January-to-April delivery window. Portugal is the first European jurisdiction to take Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra silicon at this scale, and the equipment underpins the Nscale / Microsoft AI-infrastructure stack that the British neocloud has been levering on a €695 million Sines programme. The second-leg deliveries — 66,000 chips across the next two buildings — are timetabled into the back end of 2027 and route the Sines campus toward Europe's largest single-site Nvidia footprint. The cross-check inside the INE release is the imports tape, which lifted from +0.9% to +5.2% as the same chip flow walks into the trade-balance ledger, leaving the net-export drag as the offset against the headline capex pickup.
Galp prints lone green tape — €18.975 close as oil bid offsets the ex-dividend selling pressure across the rest of the PSI
Galp Energia stood out as the only PSI heavyweight to lift on the day, closing +1.82% at €18.975 against the broader sell-side rotation. The session leadership came from the energy complex bid — Lisbon's refiner caught the Brent stabilisation print after the late-May slide below $100, with the integrated-energy desk treating the level as a re-entry zone heading into the 2 June OPEC+ monthly conference call. The Sines refinery capacity (roughly 300,000 barrels per day) carries the crack-spread torque inside the model, and the upstream legs — including the recent Mopane-3 well appraisal results in Namibia's Orange Basin — keep the upstream optionality bid. EDP Renováveis took the other green print at +0.21% to €14.20, holding above the €14 handle as the Iberian-renewables tape continued to digest the Citi Buy initiation on the parent EDP from Thursday 28 May and the data-centre-power-demand thesis around Sines, Évora and the Start Campus cluster. The morning's softer-than-expected European tape — driven by the BCP ex-dividend optics and the broader risk-off rotation across the eurozone — left Galp the natural rotation receiver inside the PSI.
Outlook — Tuesday 2 June reads the 5 June ECB tape, Wednesday 3 June stacks the Martifer OPA close, BCP dividend pay and the CGTP greve geral
Outlook: Tuesday 2 June opens with a quieter macro tape but a wider risk-off check as Frankfurt's 5 June ECB decision moves into the front-week frame — the OIS strip prices a 25-basis-point cut into the deposit-facility rate at ~80% probability, with the swap curve tilting toward an additional 15 basis points of easing into year-end. Wednesday 3 June stacks three Lisbon-specific catalysts onto one session: the Visabeira Indústria mandatory tender offer for Martifer at €2.057 per share reaches its 15:30 acceptance deadline against the Optimize Portugal Golden Opportunities fund's €2.25 sabotage-block, the BCP €0.0344 gross dividend wires to holders' accounts (~€500 million in aggregate, against the 15-billion-share capital base), and the CGTP greve geral rolls its 12-point Trabalho XXI labour-reform protest across CP (25% minimum service per the Tribunal Arbitral fix), Carris, TAP cabin crew (~34 flights operated on minimum-service tape), Autoeuropa and Frente Comum. Thursday 4 June opens the BCP €407.5 million JPMorgan-executed recompra-de-ações programme — up to 1.184 billion shares (~8% of capital) cleared for cancellation, running to 4 December 2026. The cross-asset read: with EUR/USD at $1.1644, OT-Bund spread at ~46 bps and the PSI sitting on a six-session losing streak heading into the Lagarde print, a re-bid through 9,000 Tuesday morning will need a co-operative European tape and a stable euro-rates strip into the Wednesday catalyst stack.
