Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Jumps 1.47%, BPCE Closes Novo Banco, Bund Spread at 42bps

PSI Snaps Higher to 9,344.96

The PSI roared back from Wednesday's 0.60% slip with a broad-based +1.47% session, closing at 9,344.96 points and erasing the entire week's losses in one move. The advance was as wide as it was strong: every blue chip except Galp finished green, and the index now sits within touching distance of its April high at 9,410. Volumes ran ahead of the 20-day average as month-end rebalancing collided with the Novo Banco closing flow on the bid.

Energy and banks did the heavy lifting. EDP Renováveis reversed Wednesday's slide to lead the index at +2.46% to €14.18, and parent EDP followed +2.20% to €4.643 as European peers caught a bid into Iberdrola's Friday numbers. BCP climbed +1.95% to €0.909, the strongest one-day move for the lender in three weeks, with traders citing both the BPCE/Novo Banco completion (taking a major Iberian competitor's ownership uncertainty off the table) and continuing read-through from Santander Totta's Wednesday earnings. REN +1.62%, Semapa +1.53%, NOS +1.35%, Jerónimo Martins +1.29% to €20.46, Sonae +1.14%, Mota-Engil +1.09% to €4.824, Corticeira Amorim +0.94% and Navigator +0.90% all chipped in. Galp was the lone laggard, finishing flat at €19.96 as crude steadied below $73 and dealers parked the stock ahead of next week's earnings.

10-Year OT Eases to 3.46%, Spread Tightens to 42bps

Portugal's 10-year benchmark yield fell seven basis points to 3.46%, outpacing a softer move on the German Bund (3.04%) and pulling the Portugal-Bund spread back to roughly 42 basis points — the tightest read since the IGCP shifted the bulk of 2026 funding into longer maturities in February. The bid came on the back of the morning's INE flash estimate, which logged Q1 GDP growth at zero and April CPI at 3.4%, reviving expectations that the ECB stays on a cutting bias into the second half. Aforro Series F at 2.195% for May continues to siphon retail euros into the Treasury rather than the secondary market.

Euro Holds Just Below $1.17

EUR/USD steadied at $1.1696 into the European close, recovering modestly from Wednesday's $1.1670 low but still well off the month's $1.1791 high. With the Fed holding overnight rates Tuesday and a soft April CPI print on the European side, traders priced a return to the recent $1.16-$1.18 range rather than a directional break. The cross matters for Galp's dollar-denominated upstream translation and for Jerónimo Martins's Polish złoty book, both of which report next week.

Novo Banco Crosses to BPCE, Mortgage Book Sets a 22-Year Pace

Today's headline corporate event was the completion of BPCE's 100% acquisition of Novo Banco, formally ending Lone Star's eight-year ownership and parking Portugal's fourth-largest lender inside Europe's second-largest cooperative group. Listed peer BCP took the news constructively — competitor uncertainty resolved, no aggressive dividend or pricing war yet on the table. Banco de Portugal's March statistics, released this morning, caught mortgage-credit growth at 10.3% year-on-year, the strongest annual pace since 2003 and well above the eurozone's 2.9% — a tailwind for BCP, BPI and Caixa fee lines but also the reason DBRS Morningstar and Banco de Portugal are openly drafting macroprudential brakes around the €2.3bn Garantia Jovem programme.

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Earnings, M&A and the Calendar

CTT formally installed Guy Pacheco as CEO at this morning's general assembly, with the Champalimaud-backed slate inheriting João Bento's Iberian-leadership plan and a 2026-2028 mandate. Air France-KLM said it is holding its TAP bid despite a €287M Q1 loss tied to the Iran conflict, leaving Lufthansa and IAG as the other two contenders into the May privatisation milestone. Grupo Nabeiro committed €20M to doubling Delta Cafés's Campo Maior roastery to 200 tonnes a day, with the prime minister inaugurating the line — a meaningful private-capex datapoint for a quarter that otherwise printed flat. Banco de Portugal's Q1 bank lending survey caught lenders tightening SME credit criteria on risk perception and forecasting cooler mortgage demand into Q2 — a quiet counterweight to the headline mortgage-stock numbers.

Outlook for Friday

European futures point to a flat-to-modestly-positive Lisbon open as month-end window-dressing fades; the day's catalysts are the eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 09:00 and the US non-farm payrolls release after the close, with Galp's Monday Q1 release the next domestic event on traders' radars.