Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Eases 0.23%, Pulp Stocks Drag, TAP Bids Loom

PSI Close: -0.23% at 9,136.18 as Lisbon Hands Back Part of Thursday's Semiconductor-Led Rally

The PSI (Portugal Stock Index) closed Friday's session at 9,136.18 points, down 21.15 points or -0.23% on the day, trimming Thursday's +1.12% advance but holding comfortably inside the 9,090-9,170 band the benchmark has traded across the back half of June and keeping the year-to-date gain near +22%. The pullback was orderly and narrow rather than broad-based: Lisbon tracked a softer European tape into the weekend as the semiconductor-led risk bid that powered Thursday's session faded, with the index pressured most by its pulp-and-paper names and a partial reversal in the EDP family. Turnover ran broadly in line with the 20-day average, and the move read as profit-taking after a strong week rather than a fresh directional break.

Semapa -1.86% and EDP -0.98% Lead the Laggards as REN, Corticeira Amorim and Sonae Buck the Tape

The PSI movers board tilted lower on Friday, with the pulp complex the standout drag: holding company Semapa fell -1.86% as the single worst heavyweight, paper-and-tissue maker Altri slipped -0.82% and The Navigator Company eased alongside the sector. EDP Energias de Portugal gave back -0.98% and its listed renewables arm EDP Renováveis (EDP Renewables) shed -0.80%, unwinding part of Thursday's utilities-led surge, while retail-and-food group Jerónimo Martins dropped -0.86% and BCP (Banco Comercial Português) lagged the broader market at -0.68%. The bid side was led by the regulated utilities and a clutch of industrials: grid operator REN (Redes Energéticas Nacionais — National Energy Networks) topped the index at +1.87%, cork-products group Corticeira Amorim added +1.09%, retail-and-conglomerate name Sonae rose +0.97% and postal-and-logistics operator CTT (Correios de Portugal) advanced +0.51%. Construction names Mota-Engil (+0.21%) and Teixeira Duarte (+0.18%) finished marginally firmer.

Portuguese 10-Year OT Yield Ticks Up to 3.25% as the Bund Eases, Widening the PT-Bund Spread to About 40 bps

The Portuguese 10-year OT (Obrigações do Tesouro — Treasury Bonds) yield edged about a basis point higher to 3.25% on Friday, while the German 10-year Bund eased roughly a basis point to 2.85%, leaving the PT-Bund spread a touch wider at around 40 basis points from the tight 38-basis-point close struck on Thursday. The modest decompression keeps Lisbon well inside the 50-basis-point envelope it traded across the spring and preserves the Iberian-periphery outperformance that has framed the OT carry trade through the first half of 2026. With the domestic-credit backdrop benign and no fresh supply on the calendar into the weekend, the periphery bid stayed orderly even as equities drifted.

EUR/USD Firms to $1.1385 as the Dollar Softens Into the Weekend

EUR/USD traded $1.1385 at the European close, a firmer print that pushed the single currency to the upper half of the $1.13-$1.14 band it has held since the early-June ECB (European Central Bank) meeting and extended Thursday's $1.1363 close. The move owed more to a softening dollar than to any euro-area catalyst, with rate desks carrying a constructive tone on the single currency as the week wound down. A stronger euro and a steady crude tape kept imported-inflation pressure contained, reinforcing the easing inflation premium that has underpinned the periphery bond bid.

Pulp-and-Paper in Focus: Semapa Leads the Selloff as a Soft Pricing Cycle Bites the Sector's Earnings

Friday's weakest corner of the index was the pulp-and-paper complex, where Semapa and its operating arm The Navigator Company have been navigating a soft global pulp-pricing cycle that has compressed first-half margins. Navigator's first-quarter results showed revenue down about 16% year on year to €445.1 million and net income off roughly 64% to €17.2 million, while parent Semapa booked a sharper drop, with net income falling close to 78% to €8.6 million on a 34% revenue decline. Against that backdrop, Navigator has leaned into capital discipline and product mix, approving a €30 million conversion of its PM3 machine at the Setúbal integrated complex to add roughly 100,000 tonnes of flexible-packaging paper capacity from the third quarter of 2026 — a pivot toward higher-value packaging grades as commodity printing-and-writing paper softens. Navigator shares also trade into an ex-dividend date at the end of the month, adding a technical leg to Friday's drift. The sector's underperformance accounted for the bulk of the PSI's modest decline.

TAP Privatisation Enters Its Decisive Phase as Air France-KLM and Lufthansa Ready Binding Offers

On the corporate-policy front, the privatisation of flag carrier TAP Air Portugal advanced toward its decisive stage, with Air France-KLM and Lufthansa — the two groups cleared by state holding company Parpública (Participações Públicas) after IAG withdrew — preparing binding offers for a stake in the airline. The government intends to sell up to 49.9% of TAP's capital, with 44.9% earmarked for a strategic investor and up to 5% reserved for workers, and is targeting a final decision in the August-to-September window. The outcome will determine which of Europe's two largest airline groups anchors the Lisbon hub and its lucrative Atlantic and Brazil network, a read-through that matters for Portuguese aviation, tourism and the Humberto Delgado Airport expansion debate.

Mota-Engil's Emerging-Market Order Book Keeps the Construction Bench Bid

Engineering group Mota-Engil, the PSI constituent with the heaviest emerging-market beta, kept the construction bench underpinned on Friday as its international pipeline continued to build. The group has lined up a run of large overseas mandates, including the tender to build and operate Brazil's first immersed (underwater) tunnel — a project carrying investment estimated near 7 billion reais (about €1.2 billion) — and a roughly $214 million World Bank-funded package to upgrade roads, water networks and logistics hubs across six provinces in Angola. The order book reinforces the diversified, hard-currency revenue base that has supported a roughly market-beating run for the shares in 2026 and helps explain why the construction-and-infrastructure names held firm even as the broader index eased.

Tomorrow's Outlook

With Lisbon closed over the weekend, attention turns to Monday's open, where the global semiconductor tape and the dollar's direction remain the dominant cross-asset reads after Friday's quiet drift. Watch whether the pulp-and-paper complex stabilises after Semapa's selloff and whether the EDP family steadies once the post-rally profit-taking clears, while REN and the regulated utilities look to extend their defensive bid. On the policy tape, the TAP binding-bid timeline and any fresh Mota-Engil mandate are the next corporate signals, while the OT 10-year near 3.25% and EUR/USD at $1.1385 keep a carry framework that stays comfortable so long as the PT-Bund spread holds inside 45 basis points.

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