Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Bucks European Trend, Oil Surges Past $112, and Mortgage Rates Climb

PSI Closes Higher as European Markets Falter

Lisbon's PSI index closed Wednesday's session up 0.75 percent at 9,369.63 points, bucking the broader European trend. Galp led the gains with a 3.88 percent rise to 21.14 euros, benefiting from surging oil prices. EDP Renováveis gained 2.01 percent to 14.23 euros. Markets are closed for the Easter holiday and will reopen on Monday.

Brent Crude Hits $112 as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Brent crude oil reached $112.42 per barrel on Thursday morning, up 73 cents from the previous day and approximately $34 higher than the same period last year. The sustained conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran continues to drive energy prices higher, with direct consequences for Portugal's fuel and electricity costs. Portugal's Galp remains a key beneficiary on the PSI.

Euro Holds Steady Against Dollar

The euro is trading at approximately $1.152 against the US dollar, relatively stable in recent sessions. The currency has been supported by expectations that the ECB may be forced to hold or even raise rates if energy-driven inflation persists, narrowing the interest rate differential with the US.

Housing Loans Hit Record Growth Rate

Bank of Portugal data shows housing loans reached 112.4 billion euros at the end of February, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.4 percent -- the highest since February 2006. The government's public guarantee scheme for young buyers has boosted lending, but newer borrowers are taking on debt loads 120 percent above the average for existing contracts, raising vulnerability to rate increases.

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Mortgage Payments Rising as Euribor Reverses Course

The six-month Euribor has climbed above 2.5 percent following the Middle East conflict, reversing a downward trend. Families with mortgage reviews in April face increases of around 10 to 15 euros per month on a typical 150,000-euro loan. DECO PROteste recommends exploring mixed-rate options with two-year fixed periods.

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Rents Fall for Third Consecutive Month

Portugal's median asking rent fell to 16.4 euros per square metre in March, according to idealista data published this week. The decline consolidates three consecutive months of decreasing rents, offering some relief to tenants after years of sharp increases. Lisbon average one-bed rents have stabilised around 1,250 euros per month.

Portugal's New Housing Tax Package Takes Effect

Law No. 9-A/2026, published on March 6, authorised the government to implement tax relief measures aimed at increasing housing supply and promoting moderate-rent leasing. The package includes incentives for landlords who offer below-market rents, though EU state aid rules limit the scope of the boldest proposals.

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US Wine Tariffs Bite Portuguese Exporters

US tariffs on EU wine -- now at 15 percent after being raised from 10 percent in August 2025 -- are reshaping American wine menus and retail shelves. Reuters reports that US restaurants are increasingly switching to domestic alternatives. Portugal's wine exports to the US, worth over 340 million euros in 2025, face growing pressure as the tariff squeeze intensifies.

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SpaceX Files for IPO

Elon Musk's SpaceX has filed for an initial public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, potentially one of the largest technology IPOs in years. While not directly related to Portugal, the listing could influence global tech sentiment and startup valuations in European tech hubs, including Lisbon's growing ecosystem.

NYT Features $650,000 Homes in Portugal

The New York Times published a feature this week showcasing properties available for around $650,000 in Porto, Almada, and Lisbon -- a duplex, a modern apartment, and a rowhouse. The coverage continues a pattern of major international media highlighting Portugal's property market to American buyers, even as domestic affordability pressures persist.