Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: Bolsa Quiet Through Weekend at 16-Year High, Galp Q1 +41%, Heavy Earnings Calendar Loads Up for Next Week

PSI Holds 9,344.96 Through the Long Weekend — 16-Year High After Thursday's Novo Banco-Driven Rally and the BPCE Closing Trade

The Euronext Lisbon regulated cash market is shut on Saturday and Sunday and was already closed on Friday for the 1.º de Maio Labour Day holiday; trading resumes at the open on Monday, 4 May 2026. The PSI ended Thursday's truncated session at 9,344.96 points, a gain of 1.47% on the day and the strongest closing level since June 2008, lifted by the formal closing of BPCE's €6.7 billion takeover of Novo Banco and a broad re-rating of Portuguese banking exposure. Across the four trading sessions of the week the index added roughly 1.5%, outperforming the EuroStoxx 50 in a session-light Easter-and-Iran-war calendar; PSI-component cash equity turnover printed at €148 million on Thursday on the Reuters Eikon Euronext volume tape, well above the €110 million 30-day rolling average. The index has now climbed roughly 1,000 points in under 100 sessions on its run from the late-2024 base, and analysts at simplywall.st's PSI dashboard now cite the 10,000-point line — last visited briefly in 2008 — as the next round-number target if the planned Fidelidade IPO consolidates the bank-rally read-through into the insurance segment.

10-Year OT at 3.46% Into the Weekend — Bund Spread Holds at 43bps as Periphery Outperforms in the Light Holiday Tape

Portugal's benchmark 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro yield closed Friday's cross-market session at roughly 3.46%, up about two basis points from Thursday and roughly four basis points wider on the week, in a tape thinned by Lisbon and Frankfurt holiday calendars. The German 10-year Bund sits broadly unchanged in the same window, leaving the Bund-OT spread at around 43 basis points — comfortably below the 60bps level last seen in early 2024 and consistent with the IGCP's Wednesday weekly liquidity update flagging strong primary-market reception for May's syndicated tap. Italy's BTP-Bund spread sits a touch tighter at 92bps, France's OAT-Bund spread at 67bps; Portugal continues to trade as a credit-quality outperformer in the periphery, helped by the fourth consecutive year of balanced budgets in the 2026 Programa de Estabilidade. The IGCP's next syndicated-tap window opens in mid-May; no auction is scheduled for the 7 May calendar slot, leaving Tuesday's European Commission Spring Forecast and Friday's US non-farm payrolls as the dominant duration drivers into the next IGCP print.

EUR/USD at 1.175 Into the Long Weekend — Holiday-Thin Flows Mute the Iran-War Premium, Brent Sits Just Under $108

The euro traded around $1.175 against the US dollar through the European session on Friday, broadly flat versus Thursday's New York close and inside this week's 1.172-1.180 range. The pair has tracked the year-to-date average of 1.17 closely through the Iran-war risk-off episode, supported on the downside by ECB on-hold pricing and capped on the upside by the dollar's safe-haven bid every time Brent retests the $108-110 corridor. Brent November 2026 futures sit just under $108 per barrel into the close, with the geopolitical premium keeping the curve in modest backwardation. The big macro datapoint into next week is US non-farm payrolls on Friday 8 May; on the euro side, the European Commission's Spring Economic Forecast on Tuesday 5 May will set the policy backdrop for the June ECB meeting and the Eurogroup's discussion of Portugal's revised Programa de Estabilidade two weeks later.

Galp Q1 2026 Adjusted Net Profit Jumps 41% to €272 Million on Brazil Upstream — EBITDA at €943 Million, 73% From Upstream, 23% Production Lift

Released on the morning of Monday 27 April (a non-holiday Lisbon session), Galp Energia's Q1 2026 numbers are the corporate base on which the bank desks have been building their PSI sector earnings models for the rest of the season: adjusted net income of €272 million, up 41% year-on-year; EBITDA of €943 million, also up 41%; with the upstream unit contributing 73% of group EBITDA and posting a 78% EBITDA jump on the back of a 23% increase in oil and gas production from the Brazilian deepwater portfolio and the average Brent print. Cash flow from operations covered the dividend and capex run-rate with room to spare, and management reiterated guidance for the FY 2026 plan; the $0.39-equivalent gross dividend goes ex on 27 May, and the Brazilian production curve through Q2 is the read-through to Galp's contribution to the PSI's Q1 earnings season composite — currently tracking toward another year of three PSI names with profit above €1 billion after BCP, EDP and Galp all crossed that mark in 2025.

The Q1 2026 Earnings Calendar Opens For Real Next Week — CTT on Tuesday, EDPR and EDP on Wednesday, Bank Millennium's Polish Print Already On the Tape

CTT — Correios de Portugal kicks off the week's PSI earnings flow on Tuesday, 5 May 2026. Consensus has FY 2026 EPS guidance at €0.69 versus €0.56 in 2025, with Q1 revenue tracking the run-rate toward the €1.603 billion top-line target; the express-and-parcels segment and the e-commerce backbone for Iberia are the swing items, and the Banco CTT consumer-credit book has been the consensus margin engine since the 2024 launch. EDP and EDP Renováveis both report on Wednesday 6 May; Intermoney's EDPR Q1 preview from 28 April pencils in net profit at €55 million (a 6% YoY rise capped by higher minority interest charges) and EBITDA at €492 million on a 3% production lift. EDP parent guidance points to a stable dividend floor at €0.20 per share with the upside reinvested in renewables capex. The Bank Millennium Q1 print already on the tape from Warsaw — net profit up 68% to €71.2 million at the Polish subsidiary — sets a constructive read-through for the parent BCP Q1 release later in May, where group net interest income is the central swing factor and the Swiss-franc mortgage litigation provisions remain the principal downside risk.

Outlook: Monday's Reopen Bundles the EDP Ex-Dividend Cut, the First Full Session Under BPCE-Owned Novo Banco, and the Pump-Price Hike

Lisbon's reopening on Monday, 4 May 2026 bundles three immediate market inputs: the mechanical opening cut on EDP for the €0.20 ex-dividend (record date 5 May, payment 8 May), the first full trading session with Novo Banco trading under direct BPCE ownership after Thursday's deal close (Novo Banco itself is unlisted but the read-through to BCP and Caixa Económica Montepio sits firmly on the bank-sector desks), and the start of the monthly fuel-price cycle with a forecast 9.5-cent rise on diesel and 6-cent rise on petrol — a positive read-across for Galp's downstream margins but a negative for cyclical retail and consumer names. CTT earnings on Tuesday, the European Commission's Spring Forecast on Tuesday and the EDPR/EDP double-print on Wednesday dominate the macro and corporate calendar; the week closes with US non-farm payrolls on Friday 8 May. The IGCP holds no auction on the May 7 slot, leaving the next syndicated tap window open into mid-May.