Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: Analysts Back Energy, Cool on Jerónimo Martins as PSI Holds One-Month High
Weekend edition — Sunday, 5 July 2026. Euronext Lisbon is dark on Saturday and Sunday, so the levels below reference Friday's 3 July close, when the PSI signed off at a one-month high. With the tape quiet, this Sunday brief looks at the verdict the sell-side handed down as the week closed — a clear bet on energy over retail — the structural shift reshaping who Portugal's banks are hiring, and the catalysts that will drive trading when Wall Street reopens Monday after its long Independence Day weekend.
Where the market stands
Portugal's benchmark PSI closed Friday at 9,328.28 points, a one-month high reached on back-to-back gains of 1.20% and 1.40% that lifted the index roughly 2.1% over the week and to within about two percent of its 9,516 high for the year. The rally was an energy story: the EDP parent climbed 2.97% to €4.69 and green-power arm EDP Renováveis added 2.20% to €14.37, with lender BCP up 1.42% to €1.073 and grid operator REN — Redes Energéticas Nacionais (National Energy Networks), builder Mota-Engil and construction group Teixeira Duarte joining in. The lone conspicuous laggard was grocer Jerónimo Martins, which slipped 1.37% to €16.60 — a fresh 52-week low — as price deflation at its Polish discounter Biedronka (Ladybird) kept the shares heavy even as the market rose around them.
The sell-side picks a side
The most telling development into the weekend was not on the tape but in the research notes. Two international houses, HSBC and Morgan Stanley, turned more bullish on exactly the trio that has powered the index — EDP, EDP Renováveis and Galp — after each posted double-digit share-price gains in the first half of 2026, reinforcing the case that the energy complex still has room to run. The mirror image played out in retail: Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Jerónimo Martins with a downbeat call, flagging roughly 8% downside from current levels as the Biedronka price war grinds on. Elsewhere, CaixaBank/BPI — Banco Português de Investimento (Portuguese Investment Bank) trimmed its price target on cork group Corticeira Amorim, though it still sees upside from here. The net effect is a sell-side consensus that neatly tracks the market's own split — long the energy names, cautious on the grocer — and sets the frame for the sector rotation heading into the new week.
Bonds tight, the euro firm
In fixed income, the Portuguese 10-year yield sat near 3.33% into the weekend, a touch higher as euro-area yields drifted north. With the German 10-year Bund around 2.95%, the spread held at roughly 38 basis points — one of the tightest readings in years and a continuing endorsement of Portugal's public finances, which command some of the lowest funding costs on the euro-zone periphery. The single currency stayed strong, with EUR/USD trading near 1.1460, close to a multi-week high, as the dollar softened and US markets were shut Friday for Independence Day.
Business & tech: the banks are hiring engineers again
A structural shift is under way in Portuguese banking. After shedding roughly a quarter of their workforce over the past fifteen years, the country's lenders have reversed course and are hiring once more — but the roles look nothing like the branch jobs they cut. The recruitment now is overwhelmingly in technology and data, as banks race to build the digital plumbing that fintechs forced onto the agenda. Santander's Portuguese arm says it wants to bring on around 130 STEM profiles — engineers, data scientists and cybersecurity specialists — before year-end, and rivals are competing for the same talent pool that once flowed almost entirely to the tech sector. Paulo Macedo, chief executive of state-owned Caixa Geral de Depósitos (General Deposits Bank), notes that banking is enjoying a more favourable moment in attracting young talent after years of losing out to technology firms. It is a quiet but consequential story: the sector whose brand values jumped this year on fat net-interest margins is now ploughing that windfall into people, and into code.
The week ahead
The dominant catalyst into the new week remains the TAP Air Portugal privatisation, now in its decisive stretch: with Air France-KLM and Lufthansa shortlisted and binding offers due by the end of July, any headline on the flag carrier's sale could move sentiment. On the tape, the immediate question is whether Lisbon can hold its one-month high once Wall Street reopens Monday and global risk appetite is tested afresh. Watch whether the sell-side's energy optimism translates into a third leg higher for the EDP family and Galp, whether Jerónimo Martins can finally find a floor after its fresh low, and how the banks trade as deposit competition and savings-rate moves ripple through the sector. A steady euro and compressed bond spreads remain the supportive backdrop as the second half of 2026 gets under way.
