Galp Opens Lisbon's Quarterly Reporting Window Monday With Refining Margins Doubled — Iran-War Energy Spike Frames a PSI Run That Sees Eight Listings File Accounts Between 4 and 7 May

Galp Energia opens the Q1 2026 earnings season on the PSI on Monday, and the headline numbers are already on the wire. The Portuguese oil-and-gas major has pre-disclosed that refining margins more than doubled in the first three months of the year and that oil and gas production grew 23% year-on-year — the kind of operating leverage that comes from holding integrated upstream and downstream assets while the energy curve goes vertical.

What investors will scrutinise on Monday is not whether Galp had a strong quarter — that is now baked into consensus — but how durable the tail looks. Q1 2026 was the quarter of the Iran war, and the price action in March was extraordinary even by recent standards. Brent crude jumped 63% in a single month, trading above $118 a barrel; natural gas surged 64%. For an integrated supermajor, that is a one-off windfall on top of a sustained margin reset; for analysts, the question is how much of the spread Galp captured before April's partial unwind.

The PSI calendar

After Galp on 27 April, Ibersol reports on 29 April. The earnings season then accelerates the following week: eight of the 16 PSI-listed companies publish Q1 accounts between 4 and 7 May, with 6 May the single busiest day at four sets of results, followed by three more on the 7th. Altri and NOS have not yet posted dates on their investor calendars — a small but worth-watching anomaly given how tightly the rest of the index has clustered.

Energy is the quarter's story

Energy will be the dominant driver across the index. Galp's pre-announcement is the most exposed read on the Iran-war price spike, but it will not be the only one. EDP and EDP Renováveis have already told the CMVM that group production rose 4% year-on-year in Q1 — a number flattered by the storm cluster of 22 January to 15 February, which delivered exceptional rainfall and wind into the renewables fleet at the same moment the same storms were tearing up the Centro region's grid. The two effects do not cancel: EDP gets the upside on production, while the downstream costs of restoring the grid sit on its ~€80M booked storm impact.

Coming off a record year

Lisbon enters the season carrying serious momentum. 2025 was a record-profits year for the PSI as a whole, and three listings cleared the €1bn profit threshold for the first time. The risk for Q1 is mean reversion masking strong operating performance: a year ago the same window saw earnings fall 2% across Europe's Stoxx 600, and analysts are now penciling in a ~4% rebound for the index this quarter. In the United States, the comparison is brutal: of the S&P 500 names that have already reported, 82% have beaten expectations and consensus is now a 15.6% earnings growth print for Q1, per Reuters compilations.

What to watch on Monday

Three lines on the Galp release will define the read-across. First, the refining margin per barrel — the doubling is known; the magnitude is not. Second, upstream realised prices in Brazil and Mozambique, which decide how much of the Brent spike actually flowed through to the top line. Third, capex guidance, especially anything signalled around the Mozambique LNG restart. A clean Galp print on Monday will set the bar for the rest of the energy-heavy PSI for the next ten days.