Drug Prices in Portugal Will Rise 'Sooner or Later' — Pharma Industry Warns of Shortages Ahead

The president of Portugal's pharmaceutical industry association APIFARMA warned on Sunday that drug price increases in Portugal are now "inevitable" — and that the bigger risk is not higher costs but outright shortages of essential medicines, particularly cheap generics that millions of Portuguese patients depend on daily.

Speaking in an interview with Jornal de Negócios and Antena 1, APIFARMA president João Almeida Lopes pointed to two converging forces that are pushing the sector toward a breaking point: persistent inflation that has driven up production costs across the supply chain, and the oil price surge triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Oil's hidden role in your medicine cabinet

"Oil has an enormous weight — not just in transport and everything linked to energy, which causes inflation, but also in what are petrochemical derivatives used in pharmaceutical production," Almeida Lopes said. Petroleum-derived compounds are essential raw materials in the manufacture of many common drugs, from the coatings on tablets to the plastics in syringes and IV bags.

With Brent crude trading above $112 per barrel and diesel in Portugal having just crossed €2 per litre for the first time, the cost pressure on pharmaceutical manufacturers is intensifying week by week. For companies producing low-margin generic medicines — the backbone of Portugal's public health system — the maths is becoming impossible.

The shortage risk

APIFARMA's most alarming message was not about prices but about availability. "If prices do not keep pace with the real costs of production, many companies will simply stop manufacturing certain products," Almeida Lopes warned. Low-cost generics, whose profit margins are already razor-thin, are the most vulnerable.

This is not a theoretical concern. Across Europe, medicine shortages have been increasing since 2020, with the European Medicines Agency flagging supply disruptions as a structural challenge. Portugal, where regulated prices for generics are among the lowest in Western Europe, is particularly exposed. If manufacturers can earn better returns selling the same drugs in Germany or France, Portuguese pharmacies may find themselves at the back of the queue.

SIC Notícias reported that APIFARMA is calling on the government to provide additional support and to urgently review the mechanisms used to fix drug prices in Portugal, arguing that the current system — which benchmarks Portuguese prices against the lowest in a basket of European countries — was designed for a lower-cost era that no longer exists.

A health system already under strain

The warning lands at a difficult moment for Portugal's National Health Service. Last week, it emerged that the SNS Executive Directorate has instructed public hospitals not to expand surgical or consultation activity in 2026, even as waiting lists have surpassed 1.3 million patients. Budget constraints are already limiting what the system can deliver — rising drug costs would squeeze it further.

Meanwhile, the government faces a separate pharmaceutical pressure from abroad. Trump's 15 per cent tariff on EU pharmaceutical imports, announced on 2 April, threatens to disrupt Portugal's own pharmaceutical export industry, which shipped over €1.4 billion worth of products to international markets in 2025.

For patients, the immediate impact may be invisible — prices at the pharmacy counter are regulated, and any increases would require government approval. But behind the scenes, the gap between what it costs to produce medicines and what Portugal pays for them is widening. APIFARMA's message is clear: the status quo is unsustainable, and the question is no longer whether prices will rise, but whether they will rise fast enough to prevent shortages.