Certificados de Aforro Cross €41 Billion as Households Add Another €280 Million — IGCP Records 18th Straight Month of Inflows While Tesouro Bonds Shed €182 Million
IGCP figures show the state's flagship retail savings instrument crossed €41 billion in March, after €280 million of new subscriptions in one month. Households now hold €48.3 billion across both retail debt products — but Tesouro bonds shrank for the 53rd month in a row.
Portugal's most popular state savings product crossed a symbolic line in March: outstanding holdings of Certificados de Aforro (CA) — the open-ended retail savings certificate sold by the Treasury through CTT post offices and the agência IGCP's online portal — surpassed €41 billion for the first time, after a single-month inflow of close to €280 million, the latest IGCP data published on 22 April show.
The number is striking less for its size than for its persistence. CA subscriptions have grown for 18 consecutive months since September 2024, attracting a cumulative €7.3 billion in net new household savings. In Q1 2026 alone, the product captured roughly €1 billion in fresh deposits — a pace that, if sustained, would add another €4 billion to the stock by year-end.
Why CA, and why now
Three forces converge. First, the rate. April 2026 subscriptions yield 2.138%, the highest since May 2025, on the back of recent Euribor moves driven by Middle East tensions. Second, the simplicity: CA can be opened in 15 minutes with a Cartão de Cidadão, has no minimum holding period beyond three months, and pays a state-guaranteed return — features that resonate with households still wary of equity exposure after the 2024 European market wobble. Third, the comparison. Banco Comercial Português and Caixa Geral de Depósitos are paying around 1.4% on 12-month time deposits to retail savers, and most one-year deposits at the smaller mutual banks fall short of CA's headline rate too.
The composition of the inflows tells its own story. IGCP statistics show the typical CA subscriber is older, urban, and topping up an existing series rather than opening a new account — a profile consistent with retired households moving cash from low-yielding deposit accounts into a state product they trust.
The Tesouro bond bleed continues
While CA hauled in €280 million, the Treasury's other retail product — Certificados do Tesouro (CT) — shed €182.2 million. That is the 53rd consecutive month of net outflows from CT, dragging the outstanding stock to €7.2 billion, its lowest level in more than a decade.
The reason is structural. CT was launched in 2017 as a fixed-term, fixed-rate product to lock in then-attractive yields, but its inability to reset in a rising-rate environment has made it look stale. Maturing CT subscriptions are mostly being recycled into CA, where the rate floats with Euribor — so the headline figure overstates new household saving and understates a quiet rotation between two arms of the same Treasury programme.
Combined retail holdings now sit at €48.3 billion, making Portuguese households one of the single largest creditor blocks of their own state — with a stake roughly equivalent to 13% of all marketable Portuguese sovereign debt.
The catch: real yields remain negative
For all the headline-friendly numbers, savers are still going backwards in real terms. The latest INE inflation print, published last week, came in at 2.7% for March — comfortably above the 2.138% on offer for new CA subscriptions. Net of the small imposto do selo stamp duty levied on interest, real returns are negative by roughly 70-80 basis points. Households appear to accept that trade-off in exchange for capital preservation and convenience — a calculation that mirrors what Italian and Spanish savers have done with their own retail-bond schemes.
What to watch
Two near-term signals will tell the story for Q2. First, whether the 2.138% rate holds when the IGCP recalibrates in May — a sustained rate above 2% would keep the inflows running. Second, whether the Finance Ministry decides to refresh the CT product line; minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento has hinted at a possible relaunch in the second half of the year, which could redirect some of the household balance back into the long-dated arm of the retail Treasury. On the sovereign-debt side, IGCP's 13 May double OT auction (4-year and 10-year, up to €1.5 billion) sets the latest reference.
