Bank Valuation of Portuguese Housing Hits a Record €2,151 per Square Metre in March — INE's Avaliação Bancária Posts +16.5% Year-on-Year, Setúbal Peninsula Apartments Lead With +26.5%

The Instituto Nacional de Estatística published the March 2026 bank-valuation series on 27 April and the headline number is the one most lenders, brokers and prospective buyers will quote for the rest of the quarter — €2,151 per square metre, an increase of €29 over February and a fresh national record. Year-on-year the median valuation is up 16.5%, only marginally below the 17.2% recorded in February, which suggests the deceleration analysts had been forecasting for the early part of 2026 has not yet materialised.

The composition of the sample is also worth pausing on. Banks ran 32,839 valuations in March — split 62% apartments, 38% standalone houses — a figure that is up 10.8% on February but still 10.3% below the same month last year. The volume contraction relative to 2025 is consistent with the slower mortgage-origination data BdP has been publishing all year, even as price formation continues to push upward.

Setúbal Peninsula now the fastest-moving region

Beneath the national headline the regional dispersion is widening sharply. The standout is the Península de Setúbal — Almada, Seixal, Barreiro, Moita, Montijo, Alcochete, Palmela, Sesimbra and Setúbal city — where year-on-year apartment valuations climbed 26.5% and the broader housing series 24.8%. That is the steepest annual move of any Portuguese region and reflects the spillover from Lisbon: buyers priced out of the capital are crossing the Tagus, and bank appraisers are repricing the entire arc accordingly.

Greater Lisbon itself remains the most expensive zone in absolute terms, with the median square-metre value still well above the national line, but the relative momentum has shifted south. The Algarve also continues to print double-digit annual gains, while the interior North and Alentejo regions are seeing more modest single-digit increases — reinforcing the two-speed valuation map that has become the defining feature of the Portuguese mortgage market since 2023.

Why the bank-valuation index matters

The avaliação bancária is not a transaction-price index. It is the median value the appraiser working for the lender attributes to the property as part of the mortgage underwriting process. Crucially, it sets the denominator for the loan-to-value ratio: a higher valuation means the borrower can either reduce their down-payment to hit the same LTV or qualify for a larger loan against the same cash. With the BdP macroprudential cap at 90% LTV for primary-residence purchases by Portuguese tax residents, every euro the appraiser adds per square metre directly expands the credit envelope.

The series also tracks remarkably closely with the INE house-price index that is published with a longer lag, and it is the cleanest monthly read on price formation that the market gets. The 16.5% annual print suggests the slowdown observed in transaction volumes over the past twelve months has not translated into any meaningful price relief for buyers — a gap that continues to test the political response on housing affordability.

What to watch next

The April release lands at the end of May and will be the first reading after the Storm Kristin moratorium expiry on 28 April, the entry into force of the Direito ao Esquecimento on 2 May, and the start of the Mercosul-EU agreement provisional regime — three administrative shifts that reshape parts of the mortgage and insurance form simultaneously. If the Setúbal Peninsula keeps its current pace it will be on track to overtake parts of central Lisbon on a square-metre basis by the autumn.