Aviation Kerosene Set to Peak at $211.7 a Barrel in May — S&P Global Sees a 114% Two-Month Jump on Hormuz Disruption as Goldman Warns Europe's Jet-Fuel Stocks Could Drop to a 23-Day Cover and the Government Flags an End-August Shortage Risk

The next wave of the Middle East oil shock is hitting one specific corner of the energy chain harder than the rest: aviation kerosene. S&P Global Ratings projects jet-fuel prices will peak in May 2026 at $211.7 a barrel, a 114 percent jump in two months from the levels that prevailed in late February before the Strait of Hormuz disruption began. Even after the projected May peak, S&P sees prices easing only to $184.4, well above the historical average and high enough to reshape airline economics for the summer travel season.

The reporting, which ECO carried this morning citing S&P Global, Goldman Sachs and the International Energy Agency, lands on a desk Portuguese ministers were already watching closely. Pump prices for diesel and gasoline have been ticking up week after week as the ISP fuel-tax discount has been adjusted to compensate; aviation kerosene now risks moving from a refining-margin story into a supply-availability story.

Goldman: 500,000 Barrels a Day Gross Lost, 23% of Europe's Jet Exposure

Goldman Sachs's reading sets out the supply problem in granular terms. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is taking roughly 500,000 barrels a day off the global jet-fuel chain in gross terms, with a net deficit of around 250,000 b/d after partial substitution from non-Hormuz sources. Crucially for Europe — and for Portugal, which sources finished aviation fuel rather than refining locally at scale — about 23 percent of European jet-fuel supply is exposed to the disrupted route.

Goldman warns European commercial inventories could drop to a 23-day cover in stress scenarios, a level that puts daily lift schedules at airports under operational pressure rather than just price pressure. The IEA, which Galp's CEO Filipe Crisóstomo Silva quoted in his April commentary, has flagged that European reserves could sustain only six weeks of operations under sustained disruption. The UK is the most exposed market in Europe, with potential inventory cover dropping below ten days by summer; Portugal's relative position is somewhat better, but not insulated.

The Government's End-August Warning — and Galp's 'Coming Months' Reassurance

The Portuguese government has confirmed the operational risk publicly. RTP reported today that ministers acknowledge aviation may face supply availability issues by end-August, the first explicit timing flag from Lisbon since the Hormuz disruption began. Galp pushed back on the most acute reading in April, telling the market that Portugal had "sufficient jet fuel reserves for the coming months" — a phrase that carries more weight in May than it did in March, given the calendar.

For TAP, easyJet and Ryanair operating into Lisbon, Porto and Faro, the cost side of the equation is already moving. Kerosene is typically the single largest variable line in an airline's P&L; a 114 percent move at the wholesale barrel does not pass through one-for-one to ticket prices, but at this magnitude it pushes carriers toward fare increases on the higher-margin transatlantic and intra-European peak-season routes. ANA's traffic-throughput figures will be the lagging indicator if disruption hits.

What to Watch Through Summer

Three signals matter for the next six to ten weeks. First, the May print itself: if S&P's $211.7/barrel projection is hit by mid-month, the question shifts from "how high?" to "how long?" — and to whether a partial Hormuz reopening eases the deficit before the IEA's six-week window closes. Second, European stock-cover days: a slip below 30 days at major hubs would force fuel rationing protocols at airport level, with operational rather than financial consequences. Third, the political response: the EU has tools to coordinate strategic reserve releases, and Portugal's voice in those conversations will reflect both its lower domestic refining footprint and its outsized summer tourism exposure.

For passengers, the single most likely impact in the next month is fare creep on long-haul tickets out of Lisbon and Porto, as carriers pass through fuel-surcharge components. For aviation policy, the bigger question — how a structurally higher kerosene price reshapes Portugal's tourism-driven aviation network — is one the government will not have the luxury of postponing past September.