Air France-KLM and Lufthansa Get 90 Days to Submit Binding Bids for 44.9% of TAP — Cabinet Authorises Phase Three of Privatisation, Final Decision Targeted for Late August

The Cabinet's resolution of 23 April 2026 has formally authorised PARPÚBLICA, the state holding that owns 100% of TAP — Transportes Aéreos Portugueses, to invite Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to advance to the binding-proposal phase of the TAP privatisation. IAG, the parent of Iberia and British Airways, exited the process before this stage. The clock now runs to 22 July 2026, when the two remaining bidders must lodge formal, price-bearing offers for the same 44.9% block of capital.

The structure of the deal is fixed. The State is selling up to 49.9% of TAP, of which 44.9% is reserved for the reference investor and 5% is held back for employees. PARPÚBLICA itself will keep the remaining 50.1%. Infrastructure Minister Miguel Pinto Luz, speaking after the Council of Ministers, told reporters the two industrial proposals submitted in the non-binding round on 2 April are 'very equivalent' — meaning the financial number on the binding ticket is now the deciding lever.

The Numbers and the Calendar

• Stake on offer: 44.9% (plus up to 5% for employees)
• Bidders: Air France-KLM, Lufthansa Group
• Binding-bid deadline: 22 July 2026 (90 days)
• PARPÚBLICA evaluation window: 30 days from receipt
• Government decision: end of August / early September
• Closing (subject to Brussels): 2027

What Each Bidder Has Promised

Both groups have committed, in principle, to keeping Lisbon as a strategic European hub, expanding Porto operations, growing TAP's maintenance and engineering arm in Portugal, and maintaining direct routes to the autonomous regions of Madeira and the Azores and to the Lusophone world — Brazil above all. Sustainable-aviation-fuel commitments have been written into both books. The differentiator, Pinto Luz said, is now financial: 'O critério de valorização financeira será absolutamente central.'

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, on the same day, called the two-bidder field 'very positive' and said the Government expects 'good proposals.' The dual track adds tension: Air France-KLM has been public about its appetite, while Lufthansa is pitching the strength of its Star Alliance-aligned network. Both buyers are looking at TAP's Brazilian routes — newly amplified by the Mercosul-EU trade pillar that enters provisional force on 1 May.

A Side Signal on TAP's Value

One subplot ECO surfaced this morning is awkwardly timed. TAP completed the sale of its 51% stake in Cateringpor to Switzerland's Gate Gourmet on 13 April — for €1.79 million, against the €11.685 million TAP had paid TAP SGPS for the same stake just nine months earlier. Gate Gourmet was the only bidder. The €9.9 million swing on a non-core unit is small relative to the airline as a whole, but it does illustrate how aggressively the market is currently discounting TAP's peripheral assets — a backdrop the binding bidders will read carefully.

What This Means for Expats

• Routes: Both bidders have committed to maintaining the Brazil and Africa networks, the routes most expat residents from those countries actually use.
• Loyalty programmes: A Lufthansa win folds TAP Miles&Go into Star Alliance-adjacent benefits; an Air France-KLM win pulls TAP into Flying Blue and SkyTeam.
• Lisbon hub timing: Final closing slips into 2027 because of EU competition clearance — meaning operational change for travellers won't be visible before late 2026 at the earliest.
• Pricing: Hub status preservation is more relevant to fares than ownership identity; the contractual minimum-frequency commitments matter more than the buyer's brand.

By 22 July, the financial number on the table will tell us which European group walks away with the keys. Until then, the rhetorical balance — Star Alliance vs. SkyTeam — is mostly noise around a process that is now narrowly about price.